Leeds United are in a great position to earn automatic promotion to the Premier League at the end of the season. They sit at the summit of the Championship standings and have a two-point lead over Sheffield United who are second. More importantly, they have a three-point buffer over Burnley who are third and sit just outside the automatic promotion spots. Leeds have more points at this stage of the season than last year when they missed out on the top two spots and were defeated in the playoff final by Southampton. The Whites are keen to ensure that they do not have to worry about the playoffs again by finishing in the automatic promotion spots. They look good to equal or even better last season’s 90-point haul but the underlying numbers have a warning for Daniel Farke’s men.
The 0-0 draw at Burnley on Monday night is being seen as a good point by Leeds United who maintained their grip at the summit of the table while ensuring that the Clarets didn’t gain any ground on them.
The Whites will now look to further consolidate their position and pick up some valuable points in the next few games before back-to-back games against Sunderland and Sheffield United at the end of February.
Leeds are on their way to equaling or bettering last season’s points tally and another 90 or more points season should earn them automatic promotion to the Premier League.
The Whites are the entertainers of the league and are the more attacking vibrant side compared to Sheffield United and Burnley – their closest Championship rivals.
However, Leeds are missing more big chances than the other two sides are creating and compared to last season’s numbers, Leeds should be a little wary.
This season’s numbers look great for Leeds United but are they?
Leeds are creating more chances than both their promotion rivals but are missing as many big chances as their rivals are creating on average.
The Whites have scored the most number of goals but they are missing a lot too and it could be argued that they should have been miles ahead of everyone had they taken those opportunities.
The good news for Farke is that his side are creating enough chances to win games but the bad news is that the underlying attacking numbers are remarkably similar to last year.
Leeds scored the same 1.8 goals per game last season as they are 29 games in the ongoing campaign and their inability to find the back of the net from free-kicks also remains the same.
They created a similar number of big chances per game last season as they have this year and as usual, the story of the missing big chances also remains the same.
They are having more shots per game, which has led to more shots on target as well but the attacking numbers from last to this season are remarkably similar.
Leeds missed out on automatic promotion because they struggled to score goals towards the end of the season and this suggests that the underlying metrics need to move in the right direction for the rest of the campaign.
The saving grace for the Whites in the promotion race
The reason the 2023/24 Championship season was seen as an outlier is because Leeds became the first side since 1998 not to get promoted despite scoring 90 or more points.
Leicester and Ipswich were at a different level and Leeds were a bit unlucky last year that they came up against two juggernauts in the same campaign.
The good news for Leeds is neither Sheffield United nor Burnley have shown that they can match up to either Leicester or Ipswich at this stage of the season.
Chris Wilder’s experience at Sheffield United could prove to be valuable but Scott Parker has attracted criticism for Ipswich Town’s defensive football.
It doesn’t seem either will go on the kind of runs that Leicester and Ipswich went on last season to consign Leeds to the third position in the league table.
At this stage, Leeds look like getting 90 or more points again this season and it seems, that should be enough for automatic promotion this year.
