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Analysis

Leeds United have no excuses left – the stats reveal why they must beat Burnley

Leeds United are set to travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley on Saturday afternoon. Daniel Farke has tried to play down the significance of the two promoted teams taking on each other, but there will be real consequences to the result of this particular game.

Farke’s Leeds side have made a steady start to life back in the Premier League this season. With eight points from seven games, the Whites side have looked more than competitive at this level and do not resemble a side that may get relegated from the top flight at the end of the campaign.

The Yorkshire giants have looked competitive and solid against some very accomplished Premier League sides such as Newcastle United and Bournemouth, with Andoni Iraola paying tribute to the physicality his team encountered against Leeds earlier in the season.

Leeds now have a couple of games against two struggling sides in Burnley and West Ham, and they could consolidate their position in the league while going a long way towards securing their Premier League status.

Leeds have been a far better side than Burnley

Four points separate Leeds and Burnley in the Premier League table. The Whites are 15th in the table on eight points, while Scott Parker’s side are languishing in 18th on four points.

Leeds and Burnley have scored the same number of goals – seven – in the Premier League this season, but that is where the similarity stops between the two teams.

With seven games into the season, Leeds have been a vastly superior team to Burnley in all aspects and have looked a level above their fellow promoted team.

Just a cursory glance at the underlying metrics of the two sides, it is easy to see why Leeds are above Parker’s side, and some feel they should be higher up the Premier League table.

The Whites are outperforming Burnley in almost all aspects of the game, with a marked difference between the two teams ahead of their weekend clash.

Despite scoring the same number of goals, Leeds have created more, are better on the ball and even more physical and defensively robust than the Clarets.

A deeper dive into the metrics

We have established that Leeds have been a better side than Burnley in almost every aspect at the start of the season, but how much better? The answer is a lot.

When you break down the numbers, from expected goals (xG) and passing efficiency to possession control and defensive duel success, it’s obvious that one team is operating on a completely different level.

Leeds should have scored more goals, and their xG per 90 places them far higher up in the table, somewhere around the top half, if the underlying metrics are taken into account.

However, Burnley are where they should be, and they are one of the worst teams in the league at the moment.

The Whites are also a better passing team and are far better at retaining possession for longer than Burnley in the Premier League, with Scott Parker’s team strictly playing on the counter.

Even defensively, Leeds are vastly outperforming the Clarets in terms of defensive duels and the number of defensive actions they are getting involved in each game.

While beating Burnley at Turf Moor is going to be a tough task, Leeds have been the better team and should back themselves to get all three points on Saturday.

Can you name the team Leeds United signed these players from in the 2000s?

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Mark Viduka

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