Leeds United might finish far more comfortably than their current table position suggests. After seven Premier League matches, they stand 15th with eight points to their name.
Farke’s men garner an xG of 7.6 and a 7.9 xGA. They have scored seven goals and conceded 11 till now, which might point towards underperformance, but it is hard to justify that conclusion under a sample of seven games.
However, it is important to point out that only four of the seven goals have been open-play ones. The remaining three were scored from set pieces, each coming from a penalty, a corner and a free kick.
What do the numbers actually reveal?
Leeds United have continued their improvement as they outperformed expectations against Tottenham Hotspur (Credits: Imago Images)
The Whites’ open play xG is 6.9, and scoring four might seem like a problem. Sitting at mild underperformance, Leeds will need to step up their finishing game as the process looks pretty sound.
Creating chances isn’t a big deal for Farke’s side as they have been pretty consistent in attacking patterns. The ball usually goes wide from the centre, and a cross or cut back is employed to end the process.
Defensively, the story is a bit different. Leeds have conceded 11 goals from a 7.9 xGA as opponents have managed to score around 40% more than expected. It is an anomaly which generally doesn’t persist across the season unless the Whites have a structural problem in the back.
Three of the seven Leeds goals have come from set pieces. The sample is too small to make conclusive judgments, but there is a clear pattern building up as the club creates more chances.
Last season, the Whites’ xG stood at 89.3 and xGA at 29.6. However, Farke’s men ended up overperforming by the end of the season with 95 goals and 30 goals against, suggesting a smoothing of the statistics over the season.
Leeds United relegation odds
Looking at betting odds is another great way to understand the real chances. Bookmakers calculate probabilities from millions of data points over complex algorithms, and the market prices Leeds at around 3/1 for going down. This signals a 67-75% chance of survival.
Opta’s model, on the other hand, places the Whites in the 1oth place, highlighting performance quality. The predicted model is a bit grim, though, as the club sits just at the edge of relegation at 17th.
Comparing games against the Big 6, the first clash came against Arsenal, where Leeds saw a brutal ending as the scoreboard read 5-0. Against Tottenham Hotspur, on the other hand, there were improvements as the club managed to outperform their xG by a variable of 0.47.
The contrast against Arsenal was too big as the Gunners far outperformed their xG of 2.88. The Yorkshire-based outfit created way less quality as they ended up with an xG of 0.17. They also created zero big chances, whereas the number rose to one against Tottenham.
Leeds United should expect a mid-table finish, considering their performance quality up until this point. An almost equal xG and xGA should smooth out over the season as they focus on better execution in the final third.
