Leeds United are second in the Championship standings and they should be beating a Stoke City side who are 19th in the league table. On paper, there is a massive gap between the two teams but the game is not played on paper. The Whites have several historical factors to overcome if they are to beat the Potters. However, getting a result could be even more difficult as Stoke could have the best goalkeeper in the Championship between the sticks.
A Boxing Day fixture against one of the lower-rung teams of the Championship should make the Leeds United fans confident of getting three points but they have several reasons to worry about today.
Leeds’ away record this season has been poor and just three wins in ten games on the road do not feel anyone with any confidence among the Whites fanbase ahead of a tough trip to the bet365 Stadium.
We have already discussed Leeds’ recent record at Stoke where they have not won since 2019 and even Daniel Farke does not have the greatest of personal records at the bet365 Stadium.
Leeds also do not have a glowing record on Boxing Day and they have not won a game on this marquee date of the English football calendar since 2019.
As I said, Leeds will have to overcome several historical factors but there are more pressing concerns about Stoke as well who might not be one of the best teams in the Championship and could have the best goalkeeper in the league.
Leeds United will probably face the best goalkeeper in the Championship today
Viktor Johansson is the difference between Stoke being 19th in the table and being in the drop zone at this stage of the season. His saves have kept their head above the water.
Stoke have so far conceded 30 goals in 22 matches this season, which is par for the course for a team hoping to finish somewhere in the middle of the Championship table at the end of the season.
However, they could and probably should have conceded more if not for Johansson’s heroics between the sticks for the Potters so far this season.
Stoke have conceded shots worth a total of 39.1 Expected Goals (xG), so they have conceded nine goals less than they probably should and that is down to Johansson.
The Potters are regularly conceding numerous chances in every game but are getting regularly bailed out by their number one between the sticks this season.
Johansson’s individual performance is ranked as the best in the division, particularly in the area of shot-stopping. He is stopping more shots from getting into his goal than an average keeper would be saving and has prevented chances worth eleven goals from ending up in the back of the net.
It is arguable whether he can keep up with this level of performance for the rest of the season as the law of averages eventually does catch up for most teams.
The forwards should get more joy against a vulnerable Stoke City defence
Johansson will have to be at his best again when Leeds visit the bet365 Stadium today as the Stoke defenders are not doing much to protect their goalkeeper.
Barring their goalkeeper, Stoke have one of the worst defences in the Championship and it is Johansson’s heroics that are regularly saving their blushes.
Stoke’s xG Conceded this season is second only to fellow strugglers Plymouth Argyle and they are one of four clubs to have conceded over 100 shots on target, averaging just shy of five per game.
Leeds’ biggest problem away from home has been creating the kind of chances they get when they play at Elland Road. However, that should not be a problem against a Stoke side who are regularly conceding good quality chances in every game.
The Leeds attackers will find more joy when it comes to creating those opportunities today and they just have to find a way past a heroic Johansson in the Stoke goal.
