Leeds United have made an encouraging start back in the Premier League, but their unbeaten run faces one of its toughest tests yet as they travel to Arsenal on Saturday.
Daniel Farke’s side have collected nine points from their opening five matches, winning twice and drawing three times. Their 4-1 win over Newcastle United showed their attacking threat, while draws against Brentford, Brighton and Crystal Palace showed they can grind out results.
Arsenal, meanwhile, will be desperate to respond after suffering a 3-0 defeat to Brighton before the international break. Mikel Arteta’s side looked formidable before that setback, but the result reminded Leeds that even the division’s strongest teams can be vulnerable.
Leeds have reason to approach the trip with confidence, then. However, Opta’s supercomputer has delivered a rather less encouraging assessment of their chances at the Emirates.
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Opta supercomputer gives Leeds United grim Arsenal prediction
According to Opta’s analyst, Arsenal have a 68.9 per cent chance of winning Saturday’s match, making them the supercomputer’s most confident selection in the Premier League’s sixth matchweek.
Leeds, by contrast, have just a 13.7 per cent probability of taking all three points. The likelihood of a draw stands at 17.3 per cent, leaving Farke’s side with a combined 31 per cent chance of avoiding defeat.
The figures come from 10,000 pre-match simulations, with Arsenal emerging victorious in more than two-thirds of them.
It is a daunting prediction for Leeds supporters, particularly given the team’s unbeaten start. But the numbers reflect the challenge of visiting a side with Arsenal’s quality and recent dominance in this fixture.
Arteta has won all four of his Premier League meetings with Farke, while Arsenal have won nine of their last 10 league matches against Leeds. The Gunners also scored nine unanswered goals across the two meetings between the clubs last season.
Those are difficult records for Leeds to ignore, even if this current team have shown more competitiveness than some might have anticipated.
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Leeds can make Arsenal work for their victory
Opta’s prediction reminds us of the scale of the task facing Leeds, but it doesn’t mean Saturday’s result is already decided.
Farke’s men have earned their unbeaten record through organisation, energy, and the ability to trouble opponents when they press aggressively. The Newcastle victory was the standout example, with Leeds taking their chances and playing with the intensity needed to unsettle a more established side.
Arsenal’s defeat at Brighton could also offer some encouragement. The Seagulls disrupted the Gunners with an aggressive press, forcing problems in their build-up play. Leeds will need to match that intensity if they want to keep Arsenal from controlling the contest.
The visitors must also be careful not to leave themselves exposed. Arsenal possess the individual quality to punish mistakes, and Leeds cannot afford to turn an ambitious pressing game into an invitation for the hosts to attack the space behind them.
There are reasons to be cautious, too. Arsenal have dominated this fixture in recent seasons, and the Emirates is unforgiving when Arteta’s side are determined to respond to a defeat.
Still, Leeds have already shown that they can compete in the Premier League. A point would be an excellent result, while a win would make a strong statement about their progress under Farke.
The supercomputer has made its prediction clear. Leeds now have the chance to prove the numbers don’t tell the whole story.
this so called supercomputer needs burying on the moon along with all it’s useless algorriths that change their mind every week.if it is going to be used make it make its decisions before a ball is kicked at the start of the season and leave it to look stupid by it’s own knowledge of failure.then at the end of the season show us just how far out it really is,instead of shoving the rubbish at us every week.